Biggest Jump Ever in CO2
2010 saw a frightening increase in CO2 emissions, higher than the worst case scenario used by climate experts just four years ago.
New data shows that 2010 was a trifecta of bad news: The world, the US, and China all produced record-breaking amounts of CO2. Unfortunately, it is a record we did not want to break. Frighteningly we broke it with 9% unemployment in the US and a world economy that is limping along. The record increase in CO2 emissions was driven by the growth of coal consumption in the US and China during a time when many of us thought that emissions from coal in the US would decline because of increased natural gas production—natural gas emits about half as much CO2 as coal for comparable amounts of heat or electricity.
“It is a monster increase that is unheard of,” said Gregg Marland, a professor of geology at Appalachian State University, who has helped calculate Department of Energy figures in the past.
Most scientists believe that humans should reduce CO2 emissions to below 1980 levels. Some of us believe we need to get below 1950 levels to protect our planet from dangerous overheating. This graph shows how hard either will be.
“It’s a big jump,” said Tom Boden, director of the Energy Department’s Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center at Oak Ridge National Lab.
With the economy not yet going full blast, this dramatic jump surprised many observers. Let us hope that 2010 was an anomaly, not the beginning of a string of record-breaking years.
Source of quotes: http://www.ydr.com/nation-world/ci_19257296
Image from Wikipedia
Electric Cars in Paris—by the Hour
Parisian Shared-Electric Bluecar
Paris officials hope to deploy about 3,000 shared electric cars in Paris next summer and 5,000 by 2013. To support the new system, called Autolib, Paris and the surrounding cities will install 1,000 charging stations.
The new Autolib system was inspired by the Parisian shared bike system. Despite some unanticipated problems—vandalism and theft—Paris’ bike system has been very popular with 20,000 bikes ridden over a million times a year.
Electric vehicles are more expensive than bikes and one wealthy family is funding much of the Autolib’s planned €250 million price tag: about 335 million dollars US.
In Addicted to Energy I recommend that San Francisco implement a shared vehicle program in an all-electric downtown. My cost estimate: $400 million for 10,000 electric vehicles.
How did I get twice the vehicles for about the same price? I recommended a half-width vehicle, the Tango, which cuts the amount of parking needed by 50%.
I guess it is not a surprise that the Parisians passed on an America vehicle. Perhaps we can find an American city–or billionaire–to try the Tango.
Did Global Warming Cause the Heat Dome?
Global warming contributes to all major weather events.
The air today contains more moisture that it did in the 20th century. Greenhouse gases, caused by the burning of coal, wood and oil, trap the sun’s heat, warming the air, evaporating more water and trapping more moisture in the air.
This combination of warmer air and more humidity contributes to heat waves. Paradoxically, this increase in moisture laden air can also create monster snowstorms, something that would be welcome just now in much of the US.
How much of the current heat wave was caused by greenhouse gases? One degree? Three degrees? More? Scientists still find it hard to attribute a specific percentage of each heat wave to global warming, similar to a police officer at an accident scene only being able to list alcohol as a contributing factor.
But like high levels of blood alcohol, high levels of CO2 in the air contribute to the severity of heat waves. Over the next 20 years, there will be more of these once-in-100-year events that no longer wait 100 years to reoccur.
Congress May Rescue the Worst Bulbs
In 2007, the Bush administration signed bipartisan legislation to improve light bulb efficiency by 30% between 2012 and 2014. The legislation does not ban incandescent bulbs; it just requires them to be more efficient. It also exempts small bulbs under 40 watts, large bulbs over 150 watts and 3-way bulbs until 2020.
Bulb manufacturers have figured out how to make some incandescent bulbs 30% more efficient. This Bush-era legislation continues to have the support from the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA); however, Congress is now having second thoughts and may repeal the legislation and preclude states from enacting similar legislation.
If you have a conservative representative in Washington, encourage him or her to support the original Bush legislation. NEMA is the trade association of the electrical manufacturing industry. They continue to support the 2007 law: http://www.nema.org/media/pr/20100921a.cfm
The counterpoint, which I am not unsympathetic to, is provided by Texas congressman Joe Barton, “From the health insurance you’re allowed to have, to the car you can drive, to the light bulbs you can buy, Washington is making too many decisions that are better left to you and your family.”
However, our children and grandchildren, as well as American industry, will be better off if we make the sacrifice and phase in more efficient bulbs over the next 8 years.
Three eLit Awards for Addicted to Energy
Addicted to Energy received three eLit Awards for excellence in digital publishing. It received top honors, a gold award, in the Current Events I category, and two silver awards: Science and Environmental/Ecology/Nature categories.
The electronic version of Addicted to Energy is available from both the Apple Store and Amazon.com supporting seven electronic platforms including the Kindle, Android, iPhone, and the iPad.
The Vatican Speaks on Climate Change
The Vatican Pontifical Academy of Sciences has just released a strongly worded report on global climate change demanding in the strongest possible language that humans act decisively to avert a coming crisis.
“We call on all people and nations to recognize the serious and potentially irreversible impacts of global warming caused by the anthropogenic [human-caused] emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants, and by changes in forests…” (Photo and summary from Ars Technica)
The executive summary is brief, and makes only three recommendations. It concludes by saying the cost of taking action “pales in comparison to the price the world will pay if we fail to act now.”
The report’s most controversial recommendation: Research geo-engineering. “It may be prudent to consider geo-engineering if irreversible and catastrophic climate impacts cannot be managed.”
The report is a masterpiece of clarity. Like my book, Addicted to Energy, it recommends immediate reductions in air pollution: “These include black carbon soot, tropospheric ozone and its precursor methane, and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).” HFCs are used in refrigerators and air conditioners. This reduction of traditional air pollutants not only protects the climate but could “save about 2 million lives each year, increase crop productivity, and repair the ability of plants to sequester carbon.”
The Working Group was co-chaired by U.C. San Diego-Scripps Institute heavy hitter V. Ramanathan and included Nobel Laureate Paul Crutzen. Fifteen pages, double spaced with pictures, the report is very clear–a call to action.
The Vatican Pontifical Academy of Sciences Report (Full report)
Lessons from Mr. Tassi’s $300 Utility Bill
A recent Wall Street Journal article tells the tale of Tom Tassi, whose “$300 electricity bill had become an embarrassment.”
“He bought a TED 5000c,” a $240 device (plus installation) that measures second-by-second how much electricity a house is using and transmits the data to a wireless hand-held device.
“‘I turned on the lights in the basement,’ Mr. Tassi recalls. ‘There were four fluorescent bulbs down there, and my electric usage went from 12 cents an hour to 86 cents an hour. I thought there was something wrong.’
“He took off the lighting fixture and noticed that the ballasts, tiny devices that limit currents in the circuits, were literally leaking electricity and had darkened the adjacent wood. For 20 years, this waste—and fire hazard—went undetected. ‘I always assumed that the fluorescent bulbs couldn’t be the problem,’ he says.” The faulty fixtures were costing him $100 a month.
The entire article is an interesting, informative read. However, there are two subtle points with nationwide public policy implications. The first: Previously, “his local utility performed two energy audits.” They both missed the rogue light fixture. Based on the audits, he added lots of insulation, but his utility bills stayed high.
The home energy audits that failed Mr. Tassi are the current darling of many state and federal regulators. This is a cautionary tale for regulators who want to mandate home energy audits. As several studies have shown, these audits can be very inaccurate. They fail to identify the most efficient homes and also fail to find many energy hogs. They frequently make poor recommendations, as was the case in Mr. Tassi’s house.
What should cities and counties do if home audits as so inaccurate? They should rate homes based on their actual energy consumption. This forces the homeowner and the energy professional to find the real energy hogs.
The second important message hidden in this story is the power of real-time smart meters. America is installing many millions of smart meters that lack this real-time feature, even though it costs little to add during manufacture and is expensive to add after installation.
Mr. Tassi would never have found his energy hog without a real-time smart meter like the TED 5000.
In summary, the two key public policy takeaways from Mr. Tassi’s story:
- Rate older homes based on their actual energy consumption, not the perceived quality of walls and windows.
- Make sure that all new smart meters provide real-time data to the homeowner. Unfortunately, most don’t.
If a smart meter is not smart enough to have found Mr. Tassi’s rogue light fixture, it is not smart enough to find most energy hogs.
We could call this the “Tassi test.” America should never install another smart meter that fails the Tassi test.
$15 Gasoline
Lester Brown, in his extraordinary new book, World on the Edge, says if gasoline were fully burdened with its environmental and defense costs it would cost $15 a gallon!
This got me thinking, what changes would the Sherwin household make if gasoline were $15 a gallon? The Prius would cost $160 per fill-up. What would the Sherwins do? Time for major changes:
- Mom: Sell the MDX and steal Dad’s Prius. Then convert the Prius to a plug-in hybrid and drive it around town on electric. Cost: About $10,000, less the value of the MDX. Not sure anyone would buy a used MDX if gas were $15, so perhaps its value would be zero.
- Dad: Now carless, would buy a Tango two-seat electric car! Here I am pictured with my future Tango. Actually this is George Clooney with his Tango. Cost: not yet available. No market today, but with $15 gas, the Tango could be a hot seller.
- High school daughter: Sell the Jetta and buy an electric MINI Cooper. Cost: Not yet available. Again, it would be a hot seller with $15 gas.
- College daughter: The round trip to Cal Poly, even in her hybrid Ford Escape would cost $205, an expensive trip home for the weekend. Suddenly, the Amtrak bus looks good. So would we replace her hybrid Escape with an electric scooter? No, we would convert the Escape to a plug-in. This would help around town, but not much on the 200-mile drive to college. Cost: Another $10,000.
I am excited about $15 gas and my new Tango; see the video below of me on the test track (actually, it was my double).
Discussion topics:
- Should Mom and college daughter trade cars? Plug-in Prius for plug-in Escape. The plug-in Prius would only cost $120 to bring home for the weekend from Cal Poly.
- Is it fair that high school daughter gets a plug-in MINI just because gasoline goes to $15?
What would your family do in a world of $15 gasoline?
Wait! You want our family to survive on fewer cars? I cannot get my Tango? Then I am not voting for $15 gas.
The Prius of American Homes
Meritage Homes has created the “Prius” of new homes. They consume one-fourth the energy of typical homes built to code, and cost little more than a standard new home. As this video says, they will never build a home the old way again. The statement in the video at the 5-minute mark is remarkable.
Price Range: $176,900 to $231,900
Monthly Payment Range: $1,335 to $1,732
The website says, “The Only New Home Community in the Nation with Included Energy Efficient Technology with no cost to you!”
Lyon’s Gate, located in the southeast Phoenix, includes all these features in their new homes:
- ECHO Solar Electric/Thermal System
- Meritage Home Performance Wall System
- Spray Foam Insulation
- Super-high Performance Windows
- Energy Efficiency Lighting
- Weather Sensing Irrigation
- High Performance Plumbing Fixtures
They stole all these ideas from my book.
They do three things fundamentally differently:
- Staggered studs with polyurethane foam;
- Computer-controlled combined solar electric, solar heating, solar hot water and solar A/C unit;
- And (I think) a variable speed, variable output computer-controlled furnace and A/C unit.
Floods, Droughts and Locusts in Australia
The Creation Care website folks asked me to do a short piece on the situation in Australia. I’m re-posting it here as well.
Since 2003, Australia has been hit with a series of droughts, floods and locust plagues. A business colleague sent these stunning pictures of agricultural regions in 2010, before the most recent flooding.
The Homeland Security Newswire summarizes the current situation:
“Brisbane, a city of two million and Australia’s third largest, is flooded; roads are inundated, railway lines have been cut, and sewage is spreading into the waters; dozens of suburbs are under three meters of water, with some factories and homes only visible by their roofs; more than 100,000 properties had their power cut as a precaution against flooding of electricity substations; the worst affected area was the town of Toowoomba, west of Brisbane, where residents described an 8-meter “instant inland tsunami” ripping through the streets on Monday; the flood zone in northern Australia now covers area larger than Germany and France combined.”
Here is a short YouTube video that has received four million views:
You may be wondering:
- Is this normal? No, these are extreme events, even for Australia.
- Is this the result of climate change? Probably. More about this in a moment.
- Is this the “new normal” for Australia, long droughts followed by monster storms? Perhaps; this is the fear, a permanently altered climate, a “normal” that anything but normal.
A quick reminder of how the climate is changing. As humans burn oil, coal and wood, CO2 is released into the atmosphere. Increasing levels of CO2 trap increasing amounts of the sun’s energy. As the planet warms, droughts get longer, and precipitation becomes more intense. The computer models predict that before the polar ice caps melt and the coastal cities flood, droughts become longer and rainfall becomes more intense. We have seen the future foreshadowed in Australia, Pakistan, Indonesia, Russia and Africa.
To date, much of the burden of climate change has fallen on the world’s poor, particularly small farmers. Australia may become the most affected rich country. But eventually Australia’s problem will affect all of us.
